Subsidies received the buyers (with a credit of $8,000 for a first purchaser) that will extend until the month of November, argue a demand without solid foundations. The weakness of the labor market with a vacancy that continues growing and persistent problems in the U.S. financial system are elements that anticipate a reversal in the behavior of a real estate demand which will remain stagnant. Part of the problems that exist from the demand side in the U.S. real estate market, are even hidden creating a latent risk of new episodes of crisis. According to a report by bank regulators, more than half of mortgage borrowers with renegotiated loans in the first half of last year, observed a delay of at least two months in the payment of their assessed contributions a year later. For the next few months are not discarded large losses on loans real estate commercial to put struggling financial institutions in U.S., leaving clear also that this segment of the real estate sector is far from recovery. And while the number of unsold homes would have bottomed, prices would be about to fall even further, increasing pressure on the economy again.
For Economist Robert Shiller of Yale University, the prospects are even darker. Shiller, who was one of those who anticipated the crisis in the US housing market, predicted that the housing prices will take quite some time to recover. While stimulus programs and the purchase of assets of the Fed plan have helped sustain the housing prices, themselves, as we acknowledge above, will end in a short time by what the market will lose force. Neither in Heaven nor in hell. The U.S. economy in particular, and the global economy in general, are still in purgatory, cleaning their guilt of a crisis that has not yet completed.
Prudence should be the word most mentioned at the end of the recession. If the markets want it to avoid, since Governments should implement with concrete measures. In addition, the weaknesses and risks that still exist must be monitored closely and have provided emergency plans to respond to potential new episodes of crisis. The recovery may consolidate or excess of optimism will lead us to new relapse?